Three stakes winners, two victorious at Oaklawn, stand out in the 10-horse Arkansas Derby, says Horse Racing Nation analyst Matt Shifman.
Saturday's Grade 1 $1.5 million race for 3-year-olds offers 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to an eligible winner. Muth, early 8-5 favorite, is running only for purse money and graded black type, being barred from the May 4 classic in Louisville by running for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times: Bodemeister in 2012, American Pharoah in 2015, Charlatan and Nadal (separate divisions) in 2020.
* Muth, Grade 1 winner at 2 and last-out G2 winner, both in Southern California, gets Juan Hernandez aboard. Baffert seldom leaves the West Coast after a health scare several years ago, usually entrusting his Oaklawn runners with assistant Jimmy Barnes.
Shifman, writing for a Louisville website, tabs Muth as a "win contender" in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby with Timberlake and 5-2 third choice Mystik Dan, stakes winners over the track.
* Timberlake, the Grade 2 Rebel winner Feb. 24, is 9-5 second choice in the program, looking to give trainer Brad Cox a record third consecutive victory in the track's oldest (1936) and richest race.
* Mystik Dan, trained by Fort Chaffee-born Ken McPeek, has not raced since winning the Grade 3 Southwest by eight lengths in the mud Feb. 3. McPeek has won neither the Arkansas nor Kentucky Derby, Tejano Run placing second behind Thunder Gulch in 1995 at Churchill Downs.
Shifman recommends that bettors "use underneath" 15-1 Liberal Arts and 15-1 Just Steel while calling 20-1 Time for Truth a "live longshot."
* Just Steel, trained by Hall of Famer and two-time race winner Wayne Lukas, placed second in Oaklawn's first two Derby points preps then finished well back in the Rebel from an outside post ("Secretariat couldn't win here from the 11 hole," said Lukas, seeking his first Arkansas Derby victory since Tank's Prospect in 1985 emulated the previous year's success of filly Althea). The Justify colt drew post seven Saturday.
* Liberal Arts, trained by Robbie Medina, has waited patiently since running third in the Southwest behind two horses in this Arkansas Derby field. The Arrogate colt won the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs as a juvenile.
* Time for Truth has two wins over the track for trainer Ron Moquett, seeking a win in his home state's biggest race after three board finishes (second with King Russell last year). Moquett, of Greenwood, trains the Omaha Beach (2019 Arkansas Derby winner) colt for owners including Harry Rosenblum of Little Rock.
Shifman says to "toss" three-horse maiden Will Take It (50-1) and the uncoupled three-horse entry of Dimatic (20-1), Informed Patriot (30-1) and Imperial Arts (30-1) representing HOF trainer and meet leader Steve Asmussen.
Of his predicted top finishers, Shifman says, "All three come to the Arkansas Derby with a victory in their most recent race and are the fastest horses in the field." Post time in Oaklawn's 12th of 13 races Saturday is 6:47 p.m. (the track is closed Easter Sunday).